Do we have the technology? To go to mars now and to live there once we get there, we have to strip away the distractions that would prevent us. We need to focus on that which we have demonstrated we can do rather than things we might be able to do.
We don't have many details on the SpaceX Mars Colony Transport (MCT) which is supposed to take colonists from the surface of earth to the surface of mars (presumably for $500k per person) so we will have to ignore that option for now.
Instead of one vehicle, state of the art would seem to require at least three. One to get to earth orbit. One to get from earth orbit to mars orbit. One to land on mars. SpaceX has announced details of vehicles for the first and last. Orbit to orbit (the ship in the middle) is the easiest to define.
SpaceX has announced a price to orbit (including return we do not need if we are going to mars) at $20m per person. It is easy to see that using the FH rather than the F9 a scaled up Dragon could reduce that cost to orbit to about $2m to $4m per person simply by transporting more people at a time.
SpaceX has also talked with Mars One for a mars lander, that has yet to be tested, based on the currently operational Dragon. It has been announced to cost $150m to $195m to place it in mars orbit ready to take 2.5 mt (which includes up to 4 crew) to the martian surface (presumably within a 10km landing ellipse.) It's hard to see how that cost would come down but Elon has already suggested other technology might do that.
Many naysayers who denounce propulsive landing are not giving SpaceX a fair shake. They do not consider the fact that the superdracos are angled and protected by the heat shield. Never-the-less this technology has yet to be proven (the engines exist and could be tested in earths upper atmosphere to simulate mars but we have to give the naysayers their due. But I reserve the right to put their face in it when talking has become doing.) One thing we have shown is we can safely land 1 mt rather than 2.5 mt on mars. Some think 4.5 mt of payload to the surface is within our reach. I'm optimistic. I'd also like to add that a Dragon with nostrils looks cool and would be even cooler when it breaths fire.
The ship required to go from earth orbit to mars orbit is where a lot of saving can be found. You could own a BA330 with FH upper stage for less than $200m to orbit. It only has to be launched once so it's cost can be amortized over many trips. However, fuel will be consumed on every trip and that cost can not be amortized. On the other hand, getting fuel to orbit (not necessarily coming from the earth) is something the private sector can have a lot of involvement in with competition bringing down costs significantly. Since about half the cost of getting to mars is fuel this could make a huge difference.
This is where fuel depots serving many customers for diverse missions becomes a no brainer. It should easily operate at a profit for the service provider while bringing down costs at the same time (especially with multiple vendors competing.)
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